November Season Doubts

Discussion in 'Fireworks Forum Chat And Discussion' started by Firestormpyrotechnics, Apr 24, 2020.

  1. blackbat

    blackbat Pro Firer/Crew Supports UKFR

    Except the number of infections could then start rising again and we may back to square one. What's changed to stop this happening?
     
  2. Dodgey

    Dodgey Pro Firer/Crew

    I'm using information that is actually valid, rather than speculation. You can "what-if?" all you like but it doesnt take you anywhere nice. Better to stick with what we know, rather than what we might know, unless you like being depressed.
     
    SilberWirbel likes this.
  3. blackbat

    blackbat Pro Firer/Crew Supports UKFR

    It's not really speculation though. We know what's happened. Social distancing and lockdown have brought the numbers down and if relaxed then I see no reason why the infection won't start spreading again. That's why there's an October spike predicted that's it's said will be worse than this time.
     
  4. Dodgey

    Dodgey Pro Firer/Crew

    It is speculation. It's not heppened yet, and relaxing distancing doesn't necessarily cause another spike. If the current distancing gets the "R" number below a certain threshold, then we don't get severe outbreaks again. Where (source) is your "October spike" predicted?
     
  5. blackbat

    blackbat Pro Firer/Crew Supports UKFR

    Just the usual "experts" that the media seem to find. It's all speculation, I agree, and let's hope we are on a permanent downward trend now...
     
  6. IMO the media reporting in many cases, has been awful if not completely untrue. It is no wonder there is so much uncertainty around.
     
    trueblue_ips and SilberWirbel like this.
  7. And the government are no better.
     
    Damp Squib likes this.
  8. maxywell

    maxywell Supports UKFR

    It won't go on for years, if it spreads out of control again then there will be heard immunity in many places by the end of next year or they'll find a vaccine sometime next year or the virus will just mutate into something less damaging.

    This year unfortunately will be badly affected more so for those who rely solely or mostly on the pro side.The consumer side won't change all that much in my opinion.Loss of jobs might see a reduction in sales but loss of council displays will mean millions either buy their own or have nothing so i'm guessing they'll make up for the drop caused by job losses.
     
    SilberWirbel likes this.
  9. hofnerite

    hofnerite UKFR Stash Photo 2018 Winner! Supports UKFR

    It's going to be an interesting season and no idea what will happen. Will community displays bounce back next year or like all the council carnivals and events that have died out over the years will they never return? Will more people buy fireworks because they won't be attending a big event?
    How will more potential sales impact on the decreasing small injury rates /anti-social use we have seen over the last decade?
    How will the anti-firework brigade respond to potentially more bangs?
    Stats will be skewed all over the place this year I think.

    In terms of shop stocks, how are things going? Are new items still due to land in time? Has production in China been affected too much?
     
    nickjee and SilberWirbel like this.
  10. In terms of shop stocks, how are things going? Are new items still due to land in time? Has production in China been affected too much
    i,m afraid you won,t know the answers until october (or a bloke tells you different on facebook )
     
    nickjee and hofnerite like this.
  11. Pyro Pete

    Pyro Pete Forum Editor

    I wonder if retail firework shops will have to do a similar thing as other shops do now - safety screens for staff, one way floor markings, limited number in at a time? Maybe an increase in local delivery options too?
     
    Pidgey likes this.
  12. Are they in the bracket of shops that can re open in june??
     
  13. Screenshot_20200521-133401_Facebook.jpg
    Good idea
    Link don't work, but here is s/shot
     
  14. scoops

    scoops Pro Firer/Crew

    All possibilities based on previous known”similar “ virus’s and their outcomes - again fingers crossed I’m not one of of those who has to participate in gaining heard immunity or has to live with yet another transmissible disease with no cure, cos there’s a few which ain’t got a vaccine years after the initial identification.
     
  15. hofnerite

    hofnerite UKFR Stash Photo 2018 Winner! Supports UKFR

    Not much of a secret now though is it! ;)
     
  16. Arthur

    Arthur Pro Firer/Crew

    If we are to achieve heard immunity 70+% of the population must catch the virus, out of 70 million people that's more than 49 million infected and recovered people.

    BUT this virus has about a 0.5% fatality rate. So from 49 million infections and half a percent of 49 million is too big a number to contemplate. SO either a vaccination will be needed or there will be another outbreak any time.

    Social distancing has reduced the R number down from 4 ish to 0.6 ish meaning that the numbers of cases and casualties will reduce, but a sudden loss of separation will allow a higher R number and the rate of change will be positive and more cases will happen.

    Fortunately the virus infection does seem to be curable in otherwise healthy people and the RNA does not affect the human DNA so it shouldn't be permanent (like AIDS Hep B or Malaria)
     
    SilberWirbel likes this.
  17. Damp Squib

    Damp Squib Supports UKFR

    No - people have recovered with no significant medical intervention, but recovery and cure are not the same thing.
     
  18. Arthur

    Arthur Pro Firer/Crew

    Of those who catch the virus a large percentage don't even realise the fact, they are infectious for a week or so but with no symptoms then they recover, immune. Those who get the virus with symptoms mainly recover after a week or so. Very few are admitted to a hospital and most of those recover with a little support, few of those admitted go to intensive care but these -the very sick people- do have a poor survival rate.
     
  19. Dodgey

    Dodgey Pro Firer/Crew

    Don't forget that herd immunity doesn't simpy mean we all get it and thus, due to being immune (for however long) it's no longer viable. Herd immunity in our race relies, more often than not, on a combination of vaccines, immunity from previous exposure, and other factors (I forget, I'm no expert) - it's a combination of things. Unaided herd immunity means a LOT of deaths. The herd immunity we are used to (measles , for example) is the result of many factors, not just previous infection. Not sure if I made much sense but I hope you know what I mean. Example: if a certain % of people receive a vaccine, then it's enough to mitigate infections in people that have not received the vaccine because they are contained in small pockets.

    Back to fireworks - my big concern is this: The recession that's incoming.

    The last two years I really noticed people starting to relax and spend on pro displays as austerity eased off. This I fear will reset everying :( I also worry that people will bow to peer pressue (clapping , facebook shaming ...) and avoid display bookings as it'll look frivolous in the aftermath.
     
    Pyromania likes this.
  20. maxywell

    maxywell Supports UKFR

    Strange that pro displays seem to have increased in popularity over the last few years while consumer pyro sales have decreased, maybe it'll be the opposite this year.I still think a lot of it depends on timing.If for example BoJo makes a statement in the last week of Oct saying that we've beat coronavirus and restrictions are being lifted then it would be one of the best years ever for sponsors.